Probabilistic models of our thinking
Great article. I love how math simplifies things, by making reasonable assumptions.
In the applied sciences world, the multiple lines of evidence approach is preferred.
This is because nature is complicated and false positive or false negative results often “switch signs” with time.
Fig: Probability and set operations
ist "A union B: probability that A and B happen" statement wrong?
So... what's the answer for the Balls and urns problem?
Sorry, left that off by accident :) The Bayes theorem gives that P(urn 1 | red) = 8/13, which is approximately 61.5%.
Great article. I love how math simplifies things, by making reasonable assumptions.
In the applied sciences world, the multiple lines of evidence approach is preferred.
This is because nature is complicated and false positive or false negative results often “switch signs” with time.
Fig: Probability and set operations
ist "A union B: probability that A and B happen" statement wrong?
So... what's the answer for the Balls and urns problem?
Sorry, left that off by accident :) The Bayes theorem gives that P(urn 1 | red) = 8/13, which is approximately 61.5%.